One of the single biggest question that I answer daily is “Hey Tari, Should I buy a house now or should I wait?”. My response is simply “NO, don’t buy now wait”.

Immediately comes the follow-up question “Tari, how long do I have to wait?”. My response is “Unfortunately 2-3 years”. But, let me explain why.

What I see in the market now is a demand bubble. More people to buy with less houses for sale. For example, the Lucan units which had just 44 homes had around 5,000 people inquiring about them.

Do not join the 5,000 that fight for 44 units because obviously it is a seller’s market, and you will be putting your hard-earned money to a property that is not going to be worth that much in the next few years.

Will it come down in the next few years? For sure YES. Here is why,

Dublin does not have a housing problem in fact it is one of the least dangerous housing bubbles in the world as per a Bloomberg article called the “bubbliest housing markets”. We were far behind markets such as New Zealand, UK, and US. Look at it this way, the rental prices in Dublin have come down. All the IT companies which are the main reason behind the rental and price increase have found the wonders of remote working. Facebook allows a person doing a Dublin-based job living in a completely different country.

Not only that the supply of new houses is expected to be 21,000 units this year despite a four-month halt in construction due to the pandemic, further lifting to about 23,500 in 2022. Yes, the supply is not enough but with more people working remote local and international, the demand too will take a plunge.

Also, the lending constraint is a big reason for the housing bubble. Which will be forced by this market to change. The average house price is seemed to be 9 times of the average salary in Ireland. Guess what the loan-to-income ratio is just 3½. Therefore, by being sensible you need to make an adjustment for the time, because the devil in the data shows that it is currently not working in your favour!

Hope you now understand why one must Wait. Direction is one way DOWN. As you know good things come to people who wait.